MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryce Miller
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Bryce Miller

SEA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.44, 0.66 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.80
ROSK 10ERA 3.44WHIP 1.21W 0–1SV 0

Miller is a buy — the earned-run prevention is real and stable.

His expected ERA is 3.44, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to hold. Better still, it has been stepping down across the sample — the skill is tightening, not drifting. Nothing lucky is holding this up: he gives up hard contact on just 33.1% of batted balls against a 40% league mark, and his expected wOBA allowed is .288, well below the .315 league figure. He gets there with stuff that is gaining, not fading — his fastball has climbed to 96.0 mph, above the 94.0 league average, while he strikes out 24.3% of batters and walks only 7.0%. He misses bats and limits hard contact without needing batted-ball luck to prop up the line. Buy. Deep-league asset: 10 K, 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over the ROS — acquire now before the price climbs.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.3%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~22.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.0%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~6.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.44, 0.66 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.1%
believable since May 3133.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —
284 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.4%
7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
284 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
415 / 200 TBF
xERA3.44
3.44*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.66vs his norm —
415 / 200 TBF
ERA4.22
4.22*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.12vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
102.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.3%
norm24.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
415 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.0%
norm7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
415 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.264
.264*
lg avg .295 ▼−.031vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
284 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.8%
13.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
415 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.9%vs his norm —
415 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
1613 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.3%→23.7%signal10 K — K% 24.3% (signal) tempered to career ~22.4% → projected 23.7% over ~11 remaining…
xERA 3.44signal3.44 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.44 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep10 K ROS, 3.44 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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