MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryce Miller
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Bryce Miller

SEA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.72
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.23W 0–0SV 0

Miller is a buy — the strikeouts back the expected ERA.

His expected ERA is 3.70, four-tenths of a run better than league average, and the strikeout numbers come with it: 24.5% of batters, above the 22% league mark, with enough batters faced for that to be reliable. The velocity supports it — 95.9 mph on the fastball, up from where it started and well past league. What makes the profile hold is that nothing is running hot underneath it. His BABIP-against sits at a normal level, so the run prevention is not borrowed. He allows hard contact on 32.2% of batted balls against a 40% league rate, and his expected wOBA allowed of .297 is 18 points better than average. The gap between what he allows and what the league allows is the pitcher. The expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample. Buy. 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.23 WHIP as a deep-league asset: stash the ratios now and the strikeouts arrive.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.5%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~22.4% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~6.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.70, 0.40 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.2%
believable since May 3132.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm —
326 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
326 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
485 / 200 TBF
xERA3.70
3.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.40vs his norm —
485 / 200 TBF
ERA4.17
4.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.07vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
118.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
norm24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
485 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
485 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
.260*
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
326 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
485 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.5%
35.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
485 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
1885 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→23.9%signal0 K — K% 24.5% (signal) tempered to career ~22.4% → projected 23.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.70signal3.70 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.70 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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