543 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Carter Jensen
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.306); strikeout rate 28% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .196R 5RBI 5SB 0
Jensen is a hold — average skill, stable profile, no edge either way.
ROS projects HR 7 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .223 YTD → .196 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.306)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 28% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.4 mphvs his norm —
326 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
326 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
326 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
543 / 160 PA
wOBA.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
543 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
543 / 60 PA
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
543 / 120 PA
BABIP.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
326 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
543 / 50 PA
Chase %23.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
543 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.0%→10.4%signal1 HR — Barrel% 11.0% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 10.4%.
BABIP 0.283→0.266 regressednoise.196 AVG — BABIP 0.283 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.255 (xBA 0.212) → 0.266.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~40 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~40 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 55 G) over ~40 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.