Rest of Season Projection
CarsonCategoryCarter
8HR →9
35R →39
34RBI →44
0SB0
.259AVG ←.183
Current Season
CarsonCategoryCarter
2HR →7
18R →23
17RBI →26
0SB0
.289AVG ←.223
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carson Kelly
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.317)
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.275 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Carson Kelly: 8 HR / 35 R. Carter Jensen: 9 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).