Rest of Season Projection
CarterCategoryFrancisco
9HR →10
34R ←24
39RBI ←20
0SB0
.187AVG →.243
Current Season
CarterCategoryFrancisco
7HR ←4
23R ←12
26RBI ←10
0SB0
.223AVG →.243
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.271 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Francisco Alvarez
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.334)
Alvarez's .245 AVG leads Jensen's .187 — both project for 10 HR. Jensen's 40 RBI outpaces Alvarez's 21. The skill gap and sell verdict recommend Alvarez.