138 PA · week 12
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Francisco Alvarez
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.334); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 10AVG .243R 24RBI 20SB 0
Alvarez is a hold — league average with no edge.
ROS projects HR 4 YTD → 10 ROS, AVG .243 YTD → .243 ROS, R 12 YTD → 24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %16.5%—+5.9% ▲vs his ~10.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.334)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
91 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
91 / 50 BBE
Barrel %16.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm +5.9% ▲
91 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.334
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 160 PA
wOBA.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
138 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
138 / 60 PA
Walk %8.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
138 / 120 PA
BABIP.291
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm +.020 ▲BABIP is above his ~.271 norm — expect it to fall.
91 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 16.5%→12.4%signal10 HR — Barrel% 16.5% (signal) tempered to career ~10.6% → projected 12.4%.
BABIP 0.291→0.281 regressednoise.243 AVG — BABIP 0.291 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.280 (xBA 0.243) → 0.281.
on-base + lineup24 R — his run rate over ~264 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~264 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 38 G) over ~264 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.