MLB Daily DeltaWeek 18 · July 28, 2026
255 PA · week 18
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Francisco Alvarez

NYM·C
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy stable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 4AVG .244R 13RBI 10SB 0

Alvarez is a buy — elite contact, no luck propping the line.

His hard-hit rate has climbed to 44.4%, above league average, with a 16.3% barrel rate — double the league mark — and both are stable on 160 batted balls. That contact quality drives an expected wOBA of .339, .024 above league, and the line tracks it: his actual wOBA is .340. His BABIP is .318, slightly above league and not yet reliable at 160 balls in play, so some batting average downside may come, but the power profile is earning its keep. He strikes out 26.7% of the time, which is high, but that was already priced in. The contact quality is stepping up; the production is matching it. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %16.3%—+5.7% ▲vs his ~10.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.318 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.3 mph
90.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.3 mphvs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.4%
44.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel %16.3%
norm16.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+8.3%vs his norm +5.7% ▲
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
255 / 160 PA
wOBA.340
.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
255 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.7%
26.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
255 / 60 PA
Walk %8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
255 / 120 PA
BABIP.318
norm.318*
lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm +.047 ▲BABIP is above his ~.271 norm — expect it to fall.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
255 / 50 PA
Chase %32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
255 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 16.3%→13.1%signal4 HR — Barrel% 16.3% (signal) tempered to career ~10.6% → projected 13.1%.
BABIP 0.318→0.291 regressednoise.244 AVG — BABIP 0.318 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.284 (xBA 0.246) → 0.291.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~137 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~137 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 38 G) over ~137 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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