Rest of Season Projection
CarterCategoryConnor
9HR ←5
37R ←26
42RBI ←33
0SB →3
.183AVG →.233
Current Season
CarterCategoryConnor
7HR ←0
23R ←8
26RBI ←10
0SB →1
.223AVG →.258
What Each Player's System Trusts
Carter Jensen
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.268 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Connor Wong
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.352 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.285 is 0.037 below the surface — regression coming
Carter Jensen: 9 HR / 37 R. Connor Wong: 5 HR / 26 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).