189 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
Dylan Crews
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.242 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .241R 14RBI 10SB 3
Crews is a buy-low — contact is stable, BABIP is noise.
Cold results, but stable contact quality and a depressed BABIP say the slump is noise. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.2%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~8.7% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.242 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
134 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
134 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
134 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
189 / 160 PA
wOBA.273
lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
189 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
189 / 60 PA
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
189 / 120 PA
BABIP.242
lg avg .295 ▼−.053vs his norm −.006 ▼BABIP is below his ~.248 norm — expect it to rise.
134 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
189 / 50 PA
Chase %34.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
189 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.2%→8.5%signal3 HR — Barrel% 8.2% (signal) lifted to career ~8.7% → projected 8.5%.
BABIP 0.242→0.270 regressednoise.241 AVG — BABIP 0.242 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.275 (xBA 0.248) → 0.270.
on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~150 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~150 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (1 in 11 G) over ~150 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.