week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Cionel Pérez
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Pérez is a sell-high — ERA belies a 2.84-run xERA gap.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.264 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 8.66 is 2.84 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 13% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed56.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+16.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL55 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed14.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%too early to trust
NOISE55 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.436
lg avg .315 ▲+.121too early to trust
NOISE76 / 200 TBF
xERA8.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+4.56too early to trust
NOISE76 / 200 TBF
ERA5.82
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.72too early to trust
NOISE17 / 200 IP
Strikeout %13.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL76 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.5%too early to trust
NOISE76 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.264
lg avg .295 ▼−.031too early to trust
NOISE55 / 800 BIP