73 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Blake Dunn
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Dunn is a sell-high — his BABIP won't hold.
Limited data: this call rests on a small sample. His actual wOBA is .321, barely above league average, but his expected wOBA is .266 — .055 below the surface, and neither number is reliable yet at 73 plate appearances. The gap is driven by a BABIP of .354 against a league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 49. That gap is luck, not a new skill level. His strikeout rate of 24.7% is above league, which caps his batting average. The current production is built on the unstable stat, not on repeatable contact. Sell high while the market prices the surface.
Sell High
med0.69
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.354 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.266 is 0.055 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphtoo early to trust
NOISE49 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.4%too early to trust
NOISE49 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%too early to trust
NOISE49 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.266
lg avg .315 ▼−.049too early to trust
NOISE73 / 160 PA
wOBA.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006too early to trust
NOISE73 / 200 PA
Strikeout %24.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL73 / 60 PA
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.7%too early to trust
NOISE73 / 120 PA
BABIP.354
lg avg .295 ▲+.059too early to trust
NOISE49 / 800 BIP