155 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Blake Dunn
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
new call
Sell High BABIP 0.352 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.278 is 0.042 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .236R 21RBI 4SB 4
Dunn is a sell-high — BABIP luck is inflating his line.
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.352 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.278 is 0.042 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %30.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.7%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.278
lg avg .315 ▼−.037vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
155 / 160 PA
wOBA.320
lg avg .315 ▲+.005vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
155 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
155 / 120 PA
BABIP.352
lg avg .295 ▲+.057vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
155 / 50 PA
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
155 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.7%→3.8%signal2 HR — Barrel% 2.7% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 3.8%.
BABIP 0.352→0.312 regressednoise.236 AVG — BABIP 0.352 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.306 (xBA 0.241) → 0.312.
on-base + lineup21 R — his run rate over ~152 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~152 projected PA.
run rate / role4 SB — his steal rate (2 in 20 G) over ~152 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.