Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryOneil
4HR →19
36R →63
7RBI →61
7SB →28
.219AVG →.242
Current Season
BlakeCategoryOneil
1HR →13
10R →42
2RBI →41
2SB →19
.269AVG ←.255
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.353 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.263 is 0.053 below the surface — regression coming
Oneil Cruz
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.353, +0.038 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 35% is stable and high — caps the floor
Blake Dunn: 4 HR / 36 R. Oneil Cruz: 19 HR / 63 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).