Rest of Season Projection
BlakeCategoryJustin
6HR ←3
36R ←25
7RBI →21
7SB →12
.233AVG ←.227
Current Season
BlakeCategoryJustin
1HR →2
10R →14
2RBI →12
2SB →7
.269AVG ←.234
What Each Player's System Trusts
Blake Dunn
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.345 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.274 is 0.059 below the surface — regression coming
Justin Crawford
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.267 below league with no luck excuse
Blake Dunn: 6 HR / 36 R. Justin Crawford: 3 HR / 25 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).