week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Ryan Zeferjahn
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.26); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26WHIP 1.25ERA 3.67W 1–3SV 0–2
Zeferjan is a hold — league-average skill with unstable driver.
ROS projects K 32 YTD → 26 ROS, WHIP 1.39 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %31.9%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~27.7% career norm
- Walk %15.7%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~13.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.26)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
92 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
92 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
191 / 200 TBF
xERA3.26
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.84vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
191 / 200 TBF
ERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.9%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
191 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
191 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.216
lg avg .295 ▼−.079vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
191 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
191 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
828 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.9%→29.8%signal26 K — K% 31.9% (signal) tempered to career ~27.7% → projected 29.8% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 3.26noise3.67 ERA — xERA 3.26 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 15.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 16% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.