week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Slade Cecconi
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.55 +0.45 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 47ERA 4.39WHIP 1.38W 2–4SV 0
Cecconi is a sell — skill below league, no luck excuse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.2%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~5.8% career norm
- Strikeout %17.9%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~19.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.55 +0.45 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
318 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
318 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.329
lg avg .315 ▲+.014vs his norm —
429 / 200 TBF
xERA4.55
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.45vs his norm —
429 / 200 TBF
ERA4.54
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.44vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
99 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
429 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
429 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
318 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
429 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
429 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
1609 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.9%→18.3%signal47 K — K% 17.9% (signal) lifted to career ~19.2% → projected 18.3% over ~56 remaining IP.
xERA 4.55signal4.39 ERA — xERA 4.55 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 62 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop47 K ROS, 4.39 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.