Is Alex Freeland a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Alex Freeland's rest-of-season outlook?

27.5% strikeouts, 6.2% barrels — the swing can't back the line.

269 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Alex Freeland

LAD·2B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Freeland is a sell — expected wOBA sits below league with no luck to blame.

His xwOBA is .297 against the league average of .315, and he has 269 plate appearances, well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is identical at .297, so there is no suppressed BABIP and no bad-luck story propping up a buy argument. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, too, which means the number stabilizing is lower than where it started. His exit velocity is 89.6 mph and his hard-hit rate is 39.5%, both right at league average, and his barrel rate of 6.2% is below league. He does take walks at 11.9% with an elite 21.7% chase rate, but that patience is undercut by a 27.5% strikeout rate. There is no skill or bounces argument to buy here. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is streaming-only, so take the sell and drop him.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —

162 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %39.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —

162 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —

162 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.297

lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —

269 / 160 PA

wOBA.297

lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —

269 / 200 PA

Strikeout %27.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —

269 / 60 PA

Walk %11.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —

269 / 120 PA

BABIP.323

lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

162 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —

269 / 50 PA

Chase %21.7%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —

269 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.2%→6.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.2% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 6.6%.

BABIP 0.323→0.286 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.323 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.277 (xBA 0.220) → 0.286.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 37 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons