Is Alex Freeland a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Alex Freeland's rest-of-season outlook?

28.6% strikeouts, 89 mph exit velo — nothing carries this bat.

245 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Alex Freeland

LAD·2B

data as of September 11, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 11, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.61

ROSHR 0AVG .198R 4RBI 3SB 0

Freeland is a sell — the skill sits below league and luck isn't hiding it.

His expected wOBA is .287, which is .028 below the league average, and at 245 plate appearances he has cleared the sample where that number becomes trustworthy. His actual wOBA is .281, right in line with it, so there is no bad-luck story inflating the gap. His contact quality confirms the read: 89.3 mph average exit velocity and a 38.1% hard-hit rate, both essentially league average but not enough to lift the line. The real problem is the strikeouts — 28.6%, well above the league's 22%, and trending upward across the sample. He does not chase much, but the swing decisions are not producing enough contact to convert. This is the level. Sell. A projected 0 HR / 4 R / 3 RBI / 0 SB / .198 AVG is a pure drop — deep-league streaming-only, nothing more.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —

147 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %38.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

147 / 50 BBE

Barrel %6.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

147 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.287

lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —

245 / 160 PA

wOBA.281

lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —

245 / 200 PA

Strikeout %28.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —

245 / 60 PA

Walk %11.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —

245 / 120 PA

BABIP.312

lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

147 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —

245 / 50 PA

Chase %21.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —

245 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 6.1%→6.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 6.1% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 6.5%.

BABIP 0.312→0.275 regressednoise.198 AVG — BABIP 0.312 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.267 (xBA 0.213) → 0.275.

on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 37 G) over ~34 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons