220 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Alex Freeland
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.279 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.62 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .202R 17RBI 13SB 0
Freeland is a sell — below-league skill, no bad luck.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.279 below league with no luck excuse
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
131 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.279
lg avg .315 ▼−.036vs his norm —
220 / 160 PA
wOBA.287
lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —
220 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
220 / 60 PA
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
220 / 120 PA
BABIP.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
220 / 50 PA
Chase %22.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —
220 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.3%→5.8%signal2 HR — Barrel% 5.3% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 5.8%.
BABIP 0.336→0.277 regressednoise.202 AVG — BABIP 0.336 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.265 (xBA 0.212) → 0.277.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~159 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~159 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 37 G) over ~159 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.