MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jose Siri
202 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Jose Siri

LAA·CF
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.302); strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .188R 8RBI 7SB 0

Siri is a hold — the contact is fine, the strikeouts cap it

His expected wOBA is .302, .013 below the league average of .315, and he has 202 plate appearances, past the point where that number becomes reliable. His contact quality is genuinely above league: 89.6 mph average exit velocity, a 42.0% hard-hit rate, and a 14.2% barrel rate, all with enough batted balls to trust. The problem is he strikes out 33.2% of the time, and that rate is stable. It chips away at whatever the contact earns him, and it has been stepping up across the season while his expected wOBA has stepped down. Add a 5.9% walk rate and a 43.4% chase rate, and the floor stays low. He is roughly the player the numbers describe, and nothing here is unstable. Hold. Just 1 HR / 8 R / 7 RBI / 0 SB / .188 AVG rest of season, a counting-only drag — deep-league streamer, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %14.2%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~14.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.302)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.6 mph
believable since Jun 2489.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.0%
42.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel %14.2%
norm14.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
202 / 160 PA
wOBA.286
.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
202 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.2%vs his norm —
202 / 60 PA
Walk %5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
202 / 120 PA
BABIP.300
norm.300*
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm +.040 ▲BABIP is above his ~.260 norm — expect it to fall.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %20.1%
20.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+9.2%vs his norm —
202 / 50 PA
Chase %43.4%
43.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.9%vs his norm —
202 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 14.2%→14.1%signal1 HR — Barrel% 14.2% (signal) tempered to career ~14.0% → projected 14.1%.
BABIP 0.300→0.240 regressednoise.188 AVG — BABIP 0.300 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.219) → 0.240.
on-base + lineup8 R — his run rate over ~26 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~26 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 15 G) over ~26 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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