157 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Darell Hernaiz
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.262); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .211R 3RBI 2SB 1
Hernaiz is a hold — contact metrics say he's not league average
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .259 YTD → .211 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %0.9%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~2.4% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.262)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.8 mphvs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %27.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.5%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.262
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 160 PA
wOBA.275
lg avg .315 ▼−.040vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 PA
Walk %10.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
157 / 120 PA
BABIP.292
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm +.048 ▲BABIP is above his ~.244 norm — expect it to fall.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
157 / 50 PA
Chase %36.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
157 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 0.9%→1.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 0.9% (signal) lifted to career ~2.4% → projected 1.8%.
BABIP 0.292→0.253 regressednoise.211 AVG — BABIP 0.292 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.247 (xBA 0.216) → 0.253.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 43 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.