MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
week 27
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Josh Ekness

MIA·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 27, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 4.03 is 0.69 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0

Ekness is a sell-high — his ERA is riding a lucky BABIP.

His ERA sits at 3.34, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .256, against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 86. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.03, .69 higher than the surface number, which is the regression waiting to happen. There are no anchors here to lean on — this is a small early sample, and the reading rests on it. The strikeout rate is 17.6%, below league, and the swinging-strike rate is 9.2%. That is not a profile that misses bats, so the suppressed BABIP has nothing propping it up. Sell high. The ROS line reads 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP — a deep-league arm, not an asset. Cash the inflated surface before it corrects.

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.256 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.03 is 0.69 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%
believable since Aug 3031.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
5.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
131 / 200 TBF
ERA3.34
3.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.76vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
29.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
131 / 70 TBF
Walk %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
131 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
.256*
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Chase %23.0%
23.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
131 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
98.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
535 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.6%→18.9%signal0 K — K% 17.6% (signal) lifted to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 18.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.03 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 15.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 15% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.75 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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