week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Seth Halvorsen
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — skill near league average (6.71); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Halvorsen is a hold — nothing unstable, nothing to chase.
ROS projects K 13 YTD → 6 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %15.0%—−7.3% ▼vs his ~22.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (6.71)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
84 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
84 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.387
lg avg .315 ▲+.072vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 200 TBF
xERA6.71
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.61vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
120 / 200 TBF
ERA6.00
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.90vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
24 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.0%vs his norm −7.3% ▼
120 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +2.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.7% norm — expect it to fall.
120 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
120 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.9 mphvs his norm —
454 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.0%→19.5%signal6 K — K% 15.0% (signal) lifted to career ~22.3% → projected 19.5% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 6.71noise3.70 ERA — xERA 6.71 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 14.2% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.77 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.