MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor Megill
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Trevor Megill

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.76, 1.34 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.76WHIP 1.14W 0–0SV 1–2

Megill is a buy — his skill is earned, not luck.

His expected ERA is 2.76 — 1.34 runs below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact-suppression supports it: his expected wOBA allowed is .259 against a .315 league mark, and both numbers are past the sample size where they become trustworthy. He strikes out 28.8% of batters, well above league, and walks only 6.8%, below league. His swing-and-miss rate and chase rate both sit well above the league average. There is no suppressed BABIP-against hiding underneath. The fastball sits at 98.0 mph, four mph above league, and xERA has stepped down across the sample while his velocity has stepped up. The skill is real and getting better. Buy. With 6 K, 2.76 ERA and 1.14 WHIP rest of season, he's a standard-league asset — go acquire before the 1-2 SV window closes.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.8%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.8%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~29.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.76, 1.34 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.9%
believable since May 2742.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.259
.259*
lg avg .315 ▼−.056vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
xERA2.76
2.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.34vs his norm —
219 / 200 TBF
ERA2.59
2.59*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
55.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.8%
norm28.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
219 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
219 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.248
.248*
lg avg .295 ▼−.047vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.6%
16.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.0%
38.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —
219 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.0 mph
98.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.0 mphvs his norm —
801 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.8%→28.9%signal6 K — K% 28.8% (signal) held to career ~29.1% → projected 28.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.76signal2.76 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.76 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.14 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard10 SV, 2.76 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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