MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor Megill
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Trevor Megill

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.64, 1.46 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.64WHIP 1.12W 0–0SV 0–0

Megill is a buy — his strikeout stuff is backed by a real expected ERA

His expected ERA is 2.64, 1.46 runs below the league average of 4.10, and he's faced 242 batters — past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact-suppression metrics agree with it: his expected wOBA allowed is .252 against a league average of .315, and he's allowed barrels on just 6.4% of batted balls, better than the league's 8.0%. The foundation is a fastball at 97.9 mph, three and a half ticks above league, and that velocity has been climbing across the sample while his expected ERA has been stepping down. He backs it up with a 28.5% strikeout rate and a 16.5% swinging-strike rate, well above league, and a 6.2% walk rate below it. There's no luck story holding this up; the skill is the whole thing. Buy. That 2.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP anchor the ratios — a standard-league asset worth acquiring before the room catches up.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.2%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~8.0% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.5%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~29.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.64, 1.46 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
believable since May 2742.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
157 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
157 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.252
.252*
lg avg .315 ▼−.063vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
xERA2.64
2.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.46vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
ERA2.63
2.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.47vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.5%
norm28.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
242 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
norm6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
242 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
.253*
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.5%
16.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.6%
38.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.1%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
97.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
874 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.5%→28.8%signal0 K — K% 28.5% (signal) held to career ~29.1% → projected 28.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.64signal2.64 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.64 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.12 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.12 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard8 SV, 2.64 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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