week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Trevor Megill
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.49); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 25ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 5–10
Megill is a hold — elite peripherals, but the sample is thin.
ROS projects K 27 YTD → 25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %31.7%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~29.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.49)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.247
lg avg .315 ▼−.068vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
xERA2.49
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.61vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 200 TBF
ERA3.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.10vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
36 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.7%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
145 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −1.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.0% norm — expect it to rise.
145 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.9%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
145 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.7%→30.2%signal25 K — K% 31.7% (signal) tempered to career ~29.1% → projected 30.2% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 2.49noise3.69 ERA — xERA 2.49 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 6.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)5-10 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep16 SV, 3.69 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.