week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Camilo Doval
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.12); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 1–1
Doval is a hold — league average with no clear edge.
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 18 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.3%—−6.0% ▼vs his ~28.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.12)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
109 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
109 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 200 TBF
xERA3.12
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.98vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 200 TBF
ERA5.09
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.99vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −6.0% ▼
157 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm −3.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.9% norm — expect it to rise.
157 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.301
lg avg .295 ▲+.006vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
109 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.6 mphvs his norm —
595 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→25.7%signal18 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~28.3% → projected 25.7% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.12noise3.69 ERA — xERA 3.12 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 7.6% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep2 SV, 3.69 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.