MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Camilo Doval
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Camilo Doval

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.76, 0.34 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 0ERA 3.74WHIP 1.40W 0–0SV 0–0

Doval is a buy — 98 mph heat and an earned 3.76 expected ERA

His expected ERA is 3.76, .34 below the league average of 4.10, on 273 batters faced — past the 200 threshold where the number becomes reliable. That gap is earned. He averages 98.2 mph on the fastball, four mph above league, and that velocity is still climbing across the sample. That shows up in the strikeouts: 24.2% of batters against a league 22.0%, with a 13.1% swinging-strike rate against 11.0%. The one soft spot is the 12.1% walk rate, which is meaningfully worse than league and keeps him from being untouchable. A 47.4% hard-hit rate allowed is high, but with a 6.4% barrel rate below league and an expected wOBA allowed of .299, the contact damage is contained. The skill is real, the sample supports it, and the strikeouts are trending in the right direction. Buy. 0 K / 3.74 ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 0-0 W / 0-0 SV is a deep-league window to acquire before the strikeouts climb.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.2%—−4.1% ▼vs his ~28.3% career norm
  • Walk %12.1%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.76, 0.34 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.4%
47.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
171 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
171 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
believable since Aug 15.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
273 / 200 TBF
xERA3.76
3.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —
273 / 200 TBF
ERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
60.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.2%
norm24.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm −4.1% ▼
273 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.1%
norm12.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
273 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
.307*
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
171 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
273 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
29.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
273 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.2 mph
98.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.2 mphvs his norm —
1038 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.2%→25.9%signal0 K — K% 24.2% (signal) lifted to career ~28.3% → projected 25.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.76signal3.74 ERA — xERA 3.76 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 12.1% + contactsignal1.40 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.49 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep1 SV, 3.74 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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