Camilo Doval
Doval is a buy — his fastball is trending up and the results follow.
His expected ERA sits at 3.62, which is 0.48 runs below the league average, and the sample is past the point where it becomes reliable. He is throwing harder: his fastball is at 98.3 mph, well above the 94 mph league average, and that figure is still stepping up across the season. The increased velocity shows up in his contact suppression — he is limiting hard contact to 46.8%, holding barrels to 5.8% against a league average of 8.0%, and keeping his expected wOBA allowed at .295 — all of it earned, not luck. He walks 12.2% of batters, which is elevated, and that is the one thing to watch. Everything else says the production is real and getting better. Buy. A 4 K, 3.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP line is a deep-league asset worth adding now before the ratio correction lands.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.2%—−5.1% ▼vs his ~28.3% career norm
- Walk %12.2%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~10.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.62, 0.48 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.