week 27
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Eric Orze
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
flipped from HOLD on September 30, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.15 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.323 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.26ERA 3.73W 0–0SV 0–0
Orze is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.0%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~21.5% career norm
- Walk %11.1%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~11.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.15 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.323 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
130 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
130 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
189 / 200 TBF
xERA4.15
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
189 / 200 TBF
ERA5.66
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.56vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
41.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
189 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
189 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.323
lg avg .295 ▲+.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
130 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
677 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.0%→20.3%signal0 K — K% 19.0% (signal) lifted to career ~21.5% → projected 20.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.15noise3.73 ERA — xERA 4.15 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 11.1% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 7…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.