MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Emerson Hancock
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Emerson Hancock

SEA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.97); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 13ERA 3.97WHIP 1.20W 0–1SV 0

Hancock is a hold — league-average across the board, stable.

His expected ERA is 3.97, sitting fractionally below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .308, against a league average of .315, so the contact he gives up is right around league too. Nothing here is being carried by luck in either direction. He strikes out 22.3% of batters, basically league average, and his walk rate of 5.7% is well below the league's 8.0%, which is the one place he separates himself. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, so the arrow points slightly the right way. But there is no gap to exploit and no unstable number propping up the line. Hold. 13 K and a 3.97 ERA is a deep-league hold, not a streamer — a steady-tax arm you roster and forget.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.3%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~18.4% career norm
  • Walk %5.7%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~7.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.97)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
401 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
401 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
.308*
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
566 / 200 TBF
xERA3.97
3.97*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.13vs his norm —
566 / 200 TBF
ERA3.57
3.57*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.53vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
138.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
norm22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +3.9% ▲
566 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.7%
norm5.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
566 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
401 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
566 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.5%
28.5%*
lg avg 28.5% 0.0%vs his norm —
566 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
2171 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→21.3%signal13 K — K% 22.3% (signal) tempered to career ~18.4% → projected 21.3% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.97signal3.97 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.97 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.7% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.97 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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