MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Emerson Hancock
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Emerson Hancock

SEA·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.30 is 1.13 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.247 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 55ERA 4.23WHIP 1.17W 2–5SV 0

Hancock is a sell-high — his BABIP is doing the heavy lifting.

His ERA is 3.17, but the building blocks tell a different story. The number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .247, 48 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 267, so that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.30 — more than a run higher than the actual ERA — and that gap points at regression. The xERA has been stepping up across the sample, a sign that the skill is trending toward the surface. Despite above-league strikeout and walk rates, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate allowed are both above league, meaning contact quality is an issue. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the xERA is the truth. Sell high. 55 K and a 4.23 ERA in a deep-league window: sell the inflated line before it closes.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.1%—+5.7% ▲vs his ~18.4% career norm
  • Walk %6.4%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~7.0% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.247 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.30 is 1.13 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.8%
43.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —
267 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.4%
9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
267 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
4.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
390 / 200 TBF
ERA3.17
3.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.93vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
99.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
norm24.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +5.7% ▲
390 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
390 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.247
.247*
lg avg .295 ▼−.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
267 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
390 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.4 mph
95.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
1532 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→22.2%signal55 K — K% 24.1% (signal) tempered to career ~18.4% → projected 22.2% over ~60 remaining…
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 71 IP.
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep55 K ROS, 4.23 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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