week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Luis Medina
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Medina is a sell-high — his BABIP-against is a mirage.
His ERA sits at 2.88, but the underlying numbers do not support it. The main driver is a BABIP-against of .266, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has only 66. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 4.43 — more than a run and a half higher than the ERA — pointing directly at regression. Limited data means this call rests on the luck gap, but the gap is clear: the skill metrics (strikeout rate 25.7%, hard-hit allowed 37.9%) are near league average, with barrels slightly above. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the xERA is real in the data. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.43 is 1.55 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL66 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL66 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016too early to trust
NOISE105 / 200 TBF
xERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33too early to trust
NOISE105 / 200 TBF
ERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22too early to trust
NOISE25 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL105 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%too early to trust
NOISE105 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
lg avg .295 ▼−.029too early to trust
NOISE66 / 800 BIP