week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Luis Medina
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.10); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23WHIP 1.25ERA 3.72W 1–1SV 0
Medina is a hold — league average with no edge in either direction.
ROS projects K 27 YTD → 23 ROS, WHIP 1.20 YTD → 1.25 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.1%—+6.0% ▲vs his ~21.1% career norm
- Walk %11.7%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~11.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.10)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
112 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
112 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
188 / 200 TBF
xERA4.10
lg avg 4.10 0.00vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
188 / 200 TBF
ERA3.59
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
42.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm +6.0% ▲
188 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
188 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
112 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
188 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
188 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.4 mphvs his norm —
725 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→24.0%signal23 K — K% 27.1% (signal) tempered to career ~21.1% → projected 24.0% over ~24 remaining…
xERA 4.10noise3.72 ERA — xERA 4.10 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 11.7% + contactsignal1.25 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.