77 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Sterlin Thompson
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.295); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Thompson is a hold — league-average skill, no signal either way.
ROS projects AVG .194 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.295)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphvs his norm —Avg Exit Velo is below the ~89.0 mph league average — expect it to rise.
48 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % is above the ~40.0% league average — expect it to fall.
48 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —Barrel % is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
48 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.295
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
77 / 160 PA
wOBA.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
77 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
77 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
77 / 120 PA
BABIP.304
lg avg .295 ▲+.009vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
48 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
77 / 50 PA
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
77 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.3%→6.6%noise0 HR — Barrel% 6.3% (noise) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 6.6%.
BABIP 0.304→0.265 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.304 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.263 (xBA 0.219) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 13 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.