MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dalton Rushing
250 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Dalton Rushing

LAD·C
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 1AVG .212R 5RBI 6SB 0

Rushing is a buy — contact quality rising, no luck involved

His hard-hit rate and expected wOBA have both stepped up across the season and settled at .339, which is .024 above the league average of .315 — and he has the plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .348, essentially matching his expected mark, so balls in play are not inflating anything. The contact quality is real: 44.3% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, with a 12.1% barrel rate that doubles the league mark, both past the sample size where those numbers can be trusted. The catch is a 29% strikeout rate, well above league and still climbing, which will cap his batting average. But the power and the discipline around it are earned, not lucky. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %12.1%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~14.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
149 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.3%
44.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
149 / 50 BBE
Barrel %12.1%
norm12.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
149 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —
250 / 160 PA
wOBA.348
.348*
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
250 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.2%
29.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
250 / 60 PA
Walk %9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
250 / 120 PA
BABIP.314
norm.314*
lg avg .295 ▲+.019vs his norm +.009 ▲BABIP is above his ~.305 norm — expect it to fall.
149 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
15.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
250 / 50 PA
Chase %30.5%
30.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
250 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 12.1%→13.2%signal1 HR — Barrel% 12.1% (signal) lifted to career ~14.0% → projected 13.2%.
BABIP 0.314→0.269 regressednoise.212 AVG — BABIP 0.314 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.252) → 0.269.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~35 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~35 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 31 G) over ~35 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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