MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dalton Rushing
205 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Dalton Rushing

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.65
ROSHR 5AVG .218R 22RBI 26SB 0

Rushing is a buy — contact quality is climbing and the skill is stable.

His expected wOBA is .339 — .024 above league average — and he has enough plate appearances for that to be reliable. His hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample, now at 43.4%, above the league average of 40.0%. That improvement is not a fluke; the sample of 129 batted balls is well past the stabilization point for contact quality. His barrel rate (11.6%) is also above league, and his walk rate and strikeout rate are within range. His actual wOBA (.353) tracks closely with his expected wOBA, so there is no luck inflating his line. The bat is trending up and the data backs it. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %11.6%−2.4%vs his ~14.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.339, +0.024 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
89.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.1 mphvs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.4%
43.4%*
lg avg 40.0% +3.4%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.6%
normbelievable since May 3111.6%*
lg avg 8.0% +3.6%vs his norm −2.4%
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.339
.339*
lg avg .315 +.024vs his norm —
205 / 160 PA
wOBA.353
.353*
lg avg .315 +.038vs his norm —
205 / 200 PA
Strikeout %25.9%
25.9%*
lg avg 22.0% +3.9%vs his norm —
205 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.5% +0.8%vs his norm —
205 / 120 PA
BABIP.303
norm.303*
lg avg .295 +.008vs his norm −.002 BABIP is below his ~.305 normexpect it to rise.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 11.0% +4.0%vs his norm —
205 / 50 PA
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% +2.9%vs his norm —
205 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 11.6%→13.1%signal5 HR — Barrel% 11.6% (signal) lifted to career ~14.0% → projected 13.1%.
BABIP 0.303→0.265 regressednoise.218 AVG — BABIP 0.303 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.252) → 0.265.
on-base + lineup22 R — his run rate over ~152 projected PA.
slugging + lineup26 RBI — his RBI rate over ~152 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 31 G) over ~152 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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