
549 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL
Luke Keaschall
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL on September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.316); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .252HR 0R 5RBI 4SB 2
Keaschall is a hold — average skill, no luck pulling either way.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .244 YTD → .252 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %3.5%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~5.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.316)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.4 mphvs his norm —
395 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %29.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.6%vs his norm —
395 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
395 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
549 / 160 PA
wOBA.340
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
549 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —
549 / 60 PA
Walk %9.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
549 / 120 PA
BABIP.312
lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm −.028 ▼BABIP is below his ~.340 norm — expect it to rise.
395 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
549 / 50 PA
Chase %22.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
549 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.5%→4.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.5% (signal) lifted to career ~5.2% → projected 4.1%.
BABIP 0.312→0.297 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.312 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.243) → 0.297.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~42 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~42 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (10 in 56 G) over ~42 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.