MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Kazuma Okamoto
636 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY

Kazuma Okamoto

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.328); strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Okamoto is a hold — the strikeouts cap a good bat

ROS projects HR 12 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .214 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.328)
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
90.6 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
388 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.1%
44.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
388 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
388 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
636 / 160 PA
wOBA.332
.332*
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
636 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.8%
28.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
636 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
636 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
388 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
636 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
636 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.1%→12.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 13.1% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 12.1%.
BABIP 0.279→0.274 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.224) → 0.274.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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