
572 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Kazuma Okamoto
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY on September 10, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.324); strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 1AVG .193R 5RBI 6SB 0
Okamoto is a hold — average skill, big contact edge, real strikeout risk.
ROS projects HR 12 YTD → 1 ROS, AVG .214 YTD → .193 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.324)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
348 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
348 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
348 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.324
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
572 / 160 PA
wOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
572 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
572 / 60 PA
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
572 / 120 PA
BABIP.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
348 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
572 / 50 PA
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
572 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.5%→12.4%signal1 HR — Barrel% 13.5% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 12.4%.
BABIP 0.283→0.274 regressednoise.193 AVG — BABIP 0.283 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.223) → 0.274.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~43 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~43 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 58 G) over ~43 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.