
636 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY
Kazuma Okamoto
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (0.328); strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Okamoto is a hold — the strikeouts cap a good bat
ROS projects HR 12 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .214 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.328)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
388 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
388 / 50 BBE
Barrel %13.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
388 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.328
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
636 / 160 PA
wOBA.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
636 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
636 / 60 PA
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
636 / 120 PA
BABIP.279
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
388 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
636 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
636 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 13.1%→12.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 13.1% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 12.1%.
BABIP 0.279→0.274 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.279 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.224) → 0.274.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 58 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.