MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dylan Dodd
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Dylan Dodd

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.207 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.10 is 0.56 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.77
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0

Dodd is a sell-high — his ERA hides a BABIP problem.

His ERA sits at 2.54, but the number keeping runs off the board is his BABIP-against: .207 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 124. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 3.10, .56 above what the box score shows, and that difference is the regression coming. His strikeout rate is 27.3%, well above league, and his swinging-strike rate is 16.1% — the stuff is real, but it does not support a 2.54 ERA. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high. The 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP ROS line is the regression landing; deep-league trade window, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.3%—+9.6% ▲vs his ~17.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~5.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.207 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.10 is 0.56 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.1%
believable since Jul 237.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
124 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
124 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.273
.273*
lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA3.10
3.10*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.00vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA2.54
2.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.56vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
norm27.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm +9.6% ▲
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.207
.207*
lg avg .295 ▼−.088vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
124 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
16.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.9%
34.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
779 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→22.4%signal0 K — K% 27.3% (signal) tempered to career ~17.7% → projected 22.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.10noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.10 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 11 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.16 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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