MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Dylan Dodd
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Dylan Dodd

ATL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.206 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.20 is 0.82 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.88
ROSK 5WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–1

Dodd is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.

His ERA sits at 2.38, but the number holding it down is his BABIP-against: .206, well below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 114. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 3.20, .82 above what the box score shows, so regression is coming. His strikeout rate is 26.6%, above the league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate is 15.8% — the stuff is there. But the ERA is not what the skill says. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high. 5 K and a 3.70 ERA rest-of-season is a deep-league streaming line — sell into this window before regression lands.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.6%—+8.9% ▲vs his ~17.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.9%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~5.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.206 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.20 is 0.82 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
believable since Jul 237.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.278
.278*
lg avg .315 ▼−.037vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA3.20
3.20*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.90vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA2.38
2.38*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.72vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
45.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.6%
norm26.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +8.9% ▲
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.206
.206*
lg avg .295 ▼−.089vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
15.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.7%
34.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.2%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
716 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.6%→21.9%signal5 K — K% 26.6% (signal) tempered to career ~17.7% → projected 21.9% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.20noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.20 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 11 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups