week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Ryan Fernandez
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.55); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Fernandez is a hold — league-average profile, nothing unstable.
ROS projects K 17 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.0%—+1.9% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.55)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
61 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
61 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
100 / 200 TBF
xERA3.55
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.55vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
100 / 200 TBF
ERA3.52
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.58vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
23 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +1.9% ▲
100 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~11.3% norm — expect it to rise.
100 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
61 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
100 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
100 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
387 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.0%→26.7%signal0 K — K% 28.0% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 26.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.55noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.55 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 10 IP.
BB% 11.0% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.