week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Seranthony Domínguez
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Domínguez is a sell-high — BABIP luck inflates the ERA.
His ERA is 3.97, but the driving force behind it is not sustainable. His BABIP-against is .196 — 99 points below the league average of .295 — and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 56. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 5.10, more than a run higher than what the box score shows. The limited data means this call rests on the first stable sample of the season, but the gap is already large enough to act on. His strikeout rate is a strong 28.9%, and opponents have a below-average hard-hit rate, but the xERA says the ERA is built on unsustainable batted-ball fortune. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.196 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.10 is 1.13 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL56 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%too early to trust
NOISE56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037too early to trust
NOISE97 / 200 TBF
xERA5.10
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.00too early to trust
NOISE97 / 200 TBF
ERA3.97
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.13too early to trust
NOISE22.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL97 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%too early to trust
NOISE97 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.196
lg avg .295 ▼−.099too early to trust
NOISE56 / 800 BIP