MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Seranthony Domínguez
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Seranthony Domínguez

SEA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.73
ROSK 0ERA 3.65WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0–0

Domínguez is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and earned.

He strikes out 25% of batters against a league average of 22%, and he has faced enough hitters for that number to be reliable. What sits underneath is an expected ERA of 3.65 — .45 below league — and that figure is stepping down across the sample. Nothing luck-driven is propping it up, either: his expected wOBA allowed is .295 against a .315 league mark, with enough batters faced to trust it, and his hard-hit rate allowed of 32.9% sits seven points under league. The fastball is averaging 97.3 mph and climbing, well above the 94.0 league mark. The walk rate of 11.9% is the one real crack — it will cost him on some nights. The rest of the profile is a pitcher earning his results. Buy. 0-0 SV and 0-0 W cap his ceiling, but 3.65 ERA / 1.35 WHIP is a deep-league asset worth stashing now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.0%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~27.9% career norm
  • Walk %11.9%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~10.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.65, 0.45 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
161 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
believable since Jun 116.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
161 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.295
.295*
lg avg .315 ▼−.020vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
xERA3.65
3.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —
260 / 200 TBF
ERA3.63
3.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.0%
norm25.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
260 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.9%
norm11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
260 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.243
.243*
lg avg .295 ▼−.052vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
161 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
260 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
97.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
1112 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.0%→26.3%signal0 K — K% 25.0% (signal) lifted to career ~27.9% → projected 26.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.65signal3.65 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.65 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.9% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep11 SV, 3.65 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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