MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Seranthony Domínguez
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Seranthony Domínguez

CWS·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 5.06 is 0.65 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81
ROSK 26ERA 3.73WHIP 1.25W 2–4SV 7–13

Domínguez is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP noise.

His ERA is 4.41, but the number keeping it down is his BABIP-against: .253, well below the league average of .295 and noisy at just 80 balls in play. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 5.06 — over half a run higher. His strikeout rate is solid (28.2%), but contact quality allowed is near league average, with barrel rate slightly above. Limited data: this call rests on the ERA-vs-xERA gap, which is driven by the unstable BABIP-against. The ERA is real on the scoreboard; the xERA is the truth. Sell high. 26 K and a 3.73 ERA with 7-13 SV is a sell-high window; trade into the regression before it hits.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.2%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~27.9% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.06 is 0.65 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
believable since Jun 118.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.345
.345*
lg avg .315 ▲+.030vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
xERA5.06
5.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.96vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
142 / 200 TBF
ERA4.41
4.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.2%
norm28.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.2%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
142 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.1%
norm14.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm +3.6% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.5% norm — expect it to fall.
142 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
.253*
lg avg .295 ▼−.042vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.6%
26.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
142 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.2 mph
97.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.2 mphvs his norm —
627 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.2%→28.1%signal26 K — K% 28.2% (signal) tempered to career ~27.9% → projected 28.1% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 5.06noise3.73 ERA — xERA 5.06 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 14.1% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.48 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)7-13 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard21 SV, 3.73 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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