week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Sam Hentges
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.19); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Hentges is a hold — league-average profile with limited data.
ROS projects K 9 YTD → 20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.6%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~25.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.19)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.5%vs his norm —Hard-Hit % Allowed is below the ~40.0% league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
xERA4.19
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
82 / 200 TBF
ERA2.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
17.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
82 / 70 TBF
Walk %18.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+10.3%vs his norm +9.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.3% norm — expect it to fall.
82 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.295
lg avg .295 .000vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
44 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
82 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.2 mphvs his norm —
338 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.6%→25.4%signal20 K — K% 25.6% (signal) tempered to career ~25.4% → projected 25.4% over ~18 remaining…
xERA 4.19noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.19 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 8 IP.
BB% 18.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 18% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.75 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.