MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alika Williams
197 PA · week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Alika Williams

ATH·SS
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.239 is 0.074 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.326 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.84
ROSHR 0AVG .188R 0RBI 2SB 0

Williams is a sell-high — the line is BABIP, not the bat.

His BABIP is .326, 31 points above the league average of .295, and that gap is the whole story of his .313 wOBA. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 142, so the number is noise, not skill. His expected wOBA is .239 — .076 below league average and .074 below his actual line. The contact quality agrees with the expected number: 84.4 mph average exit velocity is nearly five mph below league, and his barrel rate is 0.7% against a league average of 8.0%. He also chases 37.2% of pitches outside the zone, well above league, and his xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample. The bat is below league and the line is being held up by a stat that will normalize. Sell high. A 0 HR / 0 R / 2 RBI / 0 SB / .188 AVG rest-of-season line makes him a drop — cash the sell-high window now.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %0.7%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~3.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.326 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.239 is 0.074 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.4 mph
believable since Jul 584.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.6 mphvs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.6%
32.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
142 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.7%
norm0.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
142 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.239
.239*
lg avg .315 ▼−.076vs his norm —
197 / 160 PA
wOBA.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
197 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.8%
22.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
197 / 60 PA
Walk %4.1%
4.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
197 / 120 PA
BABIP.326
norm.326*
lg avg .295 ▲+.031vs his norm +.036 ▲BABIP is above his ~.290 norm — expect it to fall.
142 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
11.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
197 / 50 PA
Chase %37.2%
37.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.7%vs his norm —
197 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 0.7%→2.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 0.7% (signal) lifted to career ~3.7% → projected 2.4%.
BABIP 0.326→0.370 regressednoise.188 AVG — BABIP 0.326 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.212) → 0.370.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~24 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~24 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 9 G) over ~24 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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