231 PA · week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Alika Williams
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free skill 0.248 is 0.071 below the surface, regression coming — BABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.83 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Williams is a sell-high — his .319 line is BABIP, not bat
Surface line inflated by an unsustainable BABIP; the stable skill is lower. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %1.2%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~3.7% career norm
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.248 is 0.071 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo84.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−4.3 mphvs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %32.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.3%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.248
lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —
231 / 160 PA
wOBA.319
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —
231 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
231 / 60 PA
Walk %4.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
231 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm +.043 ▲BABIP is above his ~.290 norm — expect it to fall.
169 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
231 / 50 PA
Chase %37.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
231 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.2%→2.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.2% (signal) lifted to career ~3.7% → projected 2.5%.
BABIP 0.333→0.370 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.217) → 0.370.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 9 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.