MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alika Williams
88 PA · week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL

Alika Williams

ATH·SS
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell High strikeout rate 30% is stable and high, caps the floor — BABIP 0.357 far above league and nowhere near stable, inflating the line; luck-free skill 0.223 is 0.082 below the surface, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.76
ROSAVG .194HR 1R 0RBI 10SB 0

Williams is a sell-high — BABIP inflates a weak bat.

His actual wOBA is .305, which looks near league average, but the number driving it up is his BABIP of .357 — 62 points above the league average of .295. BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 59. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip the noise away and his expected wOBA is .223, a full .082 below the surface. Even the luck-adjusted line is 92 points below league average. His contact quality is below average (85.4 mph exit velo, 34.5% hard-hit) and his strikeout rate is 29.5% and climbing — that caps his floor and makes a BABIP drop steeper. The production is a mirage created by an unreliable stat. Sell high. 1 HR / 10 RBI / .194 AVG — sell into the inflated line; this is a regression-fueled drop.

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.357 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
  • xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.223 is 0.082 below the surface — regression coming
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo85.4 mph
believable since Jul 585.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.6 mphvs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
59 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.0%
norm0.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−8.0%vs his norm −3.7% ▼Barrel % is below his ~3.7% norm — expect it to rise.
59 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.223
.223*
lg avg .315 ▼−.092vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 160 PA
wOBA.305
.305*
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.5%
29.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
88 / 60 PA
Walk %3.4%
3.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
88 / 120 PA
BABIP.357
norm.357*
lg avg .295 ▲+.062vs his norm +.067 ▲BABIP is above his ~.290 norm — expect it to fall.
59 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
88 / 50 PA
Chase %36.8%
36.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.3%vs his norm —
88 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 0.0%→2.8%noise1 HR — Barrel% 0.0% (noise) lifted to career ~3.7% → projected 2.8%.
BABIP 0.357→0.378 regressednoise.194 AVG — BABIP 0.357 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.209) → 0.378.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~99 projected PA.
slugging + lineup10 RBI — his RBI rate over ~99 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 9 G) over ~99 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups