MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brent Headrick
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Brent Headrick

NYY·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.83, 1.27 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 5ERA 2.83WHIP 1.18W 0–1SV 0

Headrick is a buy — his skill is earned, not lucky.

His expected ERA is 2.83, which is 1.27 runs better than the league average of 4.10, and his sample of 296 batters faced is past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing fluky is holding it up. He strikes out 30.7% of batters, well above the league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 17.6% says that is a skill, not a hot streak. He walks only 7.1% of batters, better than league average. The contact he allows is weak: a .262 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, a 4.3% barrel rate against 8.0%, and a 37.0% hard-hit rate against 40.0%. There is no luck metric to give back here. His fastball is ticking up and his expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample. The skill is real. Buy. A 2.83 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the ROS makes him an asset, not a streamer — go acquire.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.7%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~27.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.1%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.83, 1.27 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.0%
37.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
184 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
4.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
184 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.262
believable since Jul 20.262*
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —
296 / 200 TBF
xERA2.83
2.83*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.27vs his norm —
296 / 200 TBF
ERA1.87
1.87*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.23vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
72.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.7%
norm30.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.7%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
296 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
norm7.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
296 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.330
.330*
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
184 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
296 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.9%
34.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
296 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
94.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
1156 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.7%→29.5%signal5 K — K% 30.7% (signal) tempered to career ~27.7% → projected 29.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.83signal2.83 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.83 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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