MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brent Headrick
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Brent Headrick

NYY·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.06, 1.04 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.91
ROSK 0ERA 3.06WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Headrick is a buy — the strikeouts and contact suppression are earned

His expected ERA is 3.06, more than a full run below the league average of 4.10, and at 326 batters faced that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. Behind it: a 30.1% strikeout rate against a league average of 22.0%, a 16.7% swinging-strike rate, and an xwOBA allowed of .271. He is not surviving on batted-ball luck. His barrel rate allowed is 4.5% against league's 8.0% and his hard-hit rate allowed is 37.3% against 40.0%, both on 201 batted balls — enough sample to trust. His walk rate is 8.3%, level with league, so nothing is being handed back. The fastball is holding at 94.1 mph and climbing across the sample, and the expected ERA has stepped down as the season has gone on. The strikeouts are the skill; the run prevention follows from them. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %30.1%—+2.4% ▲vs his ~27.7% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~8.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.06, 1.04 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.3%
37.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
believable since Jul 20.271*
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
326 / 200 TBF
xERA3.06
3.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —
326 / 200 TBF
ERA2.18
2.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.92vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
78.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %30.1%
norm30.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.1%vs his norm +2.4% ▲
326 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
326 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.328
.328*
lg avg .295 ▲+.033vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
201 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.7%
16.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
326 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
326 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.1 mph
94.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
1282 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 30.1%→29.2%signal0 K — K% 30.1% (signal) tempered to career ~27.7% → projected 29.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.06signal3.06 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.06 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard3.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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