week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brent Headrick
data as of July 19, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.98); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23WHIP 1.24ERA 3.65W 1–4SV 0
Headrick is a hold — league-average skill, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects K 29 YTD → 23 ROS, WHIP 1.37 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %8.7%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~8.6% career norm
- Strikeout %27.7%—−0.0% ▼vs his ~27.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.98)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
124 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm —
124 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
195 / 200 TBF
xERA2.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.12vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
195 / 200 TBF
ERA1.52
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.58vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
47.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm −0.0% ▼
195 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
195 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.303
lg avg .295 ▲+.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
124 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.8%vs his norm —
195 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
195 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.2 mphvs his norm —
734 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.7%→27.7%signal23 K — K% 27.7% (signal) held to career ~27.7% → projected 27.7% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 2.98noise3.65 ERA — xERA 2.98 (noise) blended 6% skill / 94% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 8.7% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 6%…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.