MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gabriel Moreno
549 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Gabriel Moreno

AZ·C
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.363, +0.048 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.339 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.70
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Moreno is a buy — the contact is climbing and the skill is earned

His expected wOBA is .363 — .048 above the league average of .315 — and 549 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. The contact quality is climbing with it: his hard-hit rate is 42.2%, above league, and both that rate and his expected wOBA are stepping up across the sample. The approach underneath is just as steady. He strikes out 14.6% of the time against a league rate of 22%, walks 11.1%, and swings and misses on only 6.4% of pitches, so there is no hole in this profile to bet against. His actual wOBA of .380 is propped up slightly by a .339 BABIP that isn't reliable yet at 403 balls in play, so some of that average will give back. The production behind it isn't going anywhere. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.7%—+1.6% ▲vs his ~6.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.363, +0.048 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.3 mph
89.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.2%
42.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
403 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +1.6% ▲
403 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.363
believable since Jun 10.363*
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —
549 / 160 PA
wOBA.380
.380*
lg avg .315 ▲+.065vs his norm —
549 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.6%
14.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
549 / 60 PA
Walk %11.1%
11.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
549 / 120 PA
BABIP.339
norm.339*
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm +.018 ▲BABIP is above his ~.322 norm — expect it to fall.
403 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
549 / 50 PA
Chase %28.7%
28.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
549 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.7%→7.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.7% (signal) tempered to career ~6.1% → projected 7.2%.
BABIP 0.339→0.341 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.339 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.344 (xBA 0.289) → 0.341.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (3 in 36 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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