MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chad Patrick
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Chad Patrick

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.11 is 0.87 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 7ERA 3.97WHIP 1.35W 0–1SV 0–1

Patrick is a sell-high — his ERA is riding a lucky BABIP

His ERA sits at 3.24, but the number underneath it is .265. That is his BABIP-against, 30 points below the league average of .295, and it is doing the work of keeping runs off the board. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to become reliable, and he has 282. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 4.11, a full run above what the scoreboard shows and right at the league average. He strikes out 20.8% of batters — a tick below league — and walks 10.1%, above it. The strikeout and walk profile does not support a 3.24 ERA on its own. With no baseline to lean on, this call rests on the current sample. Sell high. Sell into the 7 K / 3.97 ERA / 1.35 WHIP line while the window holds — a drop, not a hold, for anyone chasing ratios.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.8%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
  • Walk %10.1%—+1.7% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.11 is 0.87 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
282 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
282 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
believable since Jun 4.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
414 / 200 TBF
xERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —
414 / 200 TBF
ERA3.24
3.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.86vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
100 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
norm20.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
414 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +1.7% ▲
414 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
282 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
12.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
414 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.8%
29.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
414 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.6 mph
95.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.6 mphvs his norm —
1621 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→21.6%signal7 K — K% 20.8% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 21.6% over ~9 remaining IP.
xERA 4.11signal3.97 ERA — xERA 4.11 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 46 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-1 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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