MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chad Patrick
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Chad Patrick

MIL·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Patrick is a sell-high — ERA is all BABIP luck.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.73 is 1.19 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL133 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL133 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306
lg avg .315 ▼−.009too early to trust
NOISE185 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
3.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37too early to trust
NOISE185 / 200 TBF
ERA2.54
2.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.56too early to trust
NOISE46 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
18.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL185 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.7%
9.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL185 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
.271
lg avg .295 ▼−.024too early to trust
NOISE133 / 800 BIP