Chad Patrick
Patrick is a sell-high — his 3.40 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
His BABIP-against is .260, 35 points below the league average of .295, and that gap is doing most of the work keeping his ERA at 3.40. Batted balls against him are finding gloves at a rate that won't hold — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 296, so the number is not trustworthy yet. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 4.30, a full run above his actual ERA. His expected wOBA allowed sits at .318, right at the league average of .315, and his hard-hit and barrel rates are both a touch better than league — good, but not enough to justify a sub-3.50 ERA. His xERA has been climbing across the sample. His walk rate of 10.9% is well above league and gives him no cushion to absorb a regression. Sell high. Bank the sell-high before the 4.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP surface — a drop, not a hold.
VS His Norm
- Walk %10.9%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm
- Strikeout %21.0%—−2.4% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.30 is 0.90 above the ERA — regression coming
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.