MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chad Patrick
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Chad Patrick

MIL·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.13 is 0.57 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.88
ROSK 30ERA 3.98WHIP 1.33W 1–4SV 1–3

Patrick is a sell-high — ERA is luck, xERA says regress.

His ERA sits at 3.56, but the number keeping runs down is his BABIP-against: .268, 27 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 209. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his xERA is 4.13 — a half-run above the league average of 4.1, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and xwOBA allowed are all essentially league average, so there is no elite suppression to lean on when the BABIP normalizes. The swinging-strike rate is a tick above league, but the walk rate is also a tick above, balancing out. The ERA is already beginning to crack. Sell high. 30 K and a 3.98 ERA (not 3.56) is what you're selling; flick this drop-tier arm before the floor caves.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %20.5%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~23.4% career norm
  • Walk %9.1%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~8.4% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.13 is 0.57 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
209 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
209 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.315
believable since Jun 4.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
297 / 200 TBF
xERA4.13
4.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.03vs his norm —
297 / 200 TBF
ERA3.56
3.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.54vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
73.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
norm20.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
297 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
norm9.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
297 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
209 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
297 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.9%
30.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
297 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
1160 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→21.7%signal30 K — K% 20.5% (signal) lifted to career ~23.4% → projected 21.7% over ~39 remaining IP.
xERA 4.13signal3.98 ERA — xERA 4.13 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 46 IP.
BB% 9.1% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)1-3 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdrop3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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