228 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Marcelo Mayer
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 10-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xwOBA 0.259 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.66 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .208R 16RBI 13SB 3
Mayer is a sell — skill below league and stable.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %6.1%—−3.1% ▼vs his ~9.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.259 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.9 mphvs his norm —
164 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
164 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −3.1% ▼
164 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.259
lg avg .315 ▼−.056vs his norm —
228 / 160 PA
wOBA.267
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —
228 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
228 / 60 PA
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
228 / 120 PA
BABIP.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm −.040 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.
164 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
228 / 50 PA
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
228 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.1%→7.8%signal4 HR — Barrel% 6.1% (signal) lifted to career ~9.2% → projected 7.8%.
BABIP 0.261→0.240 regressednoise.208 AVG — BABIP 0.261 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.234 (xBA 0.201) → 0.240.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~171 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~171 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (3 in 53 G) over ~171 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.