174 PA · week 10
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
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Marcelo Mayer
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Mayer is a sell — below-league skill with no luck mask.
His expected wOBA is .260, a full 55 points below the .315 league average, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. The surface tracks the skill — his actual wOBA is in the same territory, so there is no bad-luck story pulling the line down. His contact quality metrics are all below league: 86.6 mph average exit velocity, 36.5% hard-hit rate, and 6.3% barrel rate, each based on stable samples. Worse, his xwOBA has been stepping down across the season. There is no slump waiting to break and no BABIP noise to blame. The bat is simply below average. Sell.
Sell
med0.66
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.260 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.4 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL126 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL126 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.260
lg avg .315 ▼−.055trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL174 / 160 PA
wOBA.270
lg avg .315 ▼−.045too early to trust
NOISE174 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL174 / 60 PA
Walk %6.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL174 / 120 PA
BABIP.266
lg avg .295 ▼−.029too early to trust
NOISE126 / 800 BIP