MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luisangel Acuña
224 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekBUY-LOW

Luisangel Acuña

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from BUY-LOW on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.269 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Acuña is a sell — below-league skill, no luck to blame

His expected wOBA is .269 against a league average of .315, and with 224 plate appearances his sample is past the point where the number becomes reliable. His trajectory is stepping down rather than recovering, so the skill is not trending toward the league. It shows up in the contact: 88.5 mph average exit velocity and a 36.5% hard-hit rate, both under league. The barrel rate is the clearest gap — 3.5% against 8.0% — and he has enough batted balls for that to hold. His actual wOBA of .241 is even below the expected number, so he is not carrying a bad-luck story into a turnaround. The strikeout rate at 19.6% is fine, but a 4.0% walk rate and a 34.1% chase rate show a hitter without a discipline floor to fall back on. The results match the skill, and the skill is short. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line makes him waiver-wire fodder — a drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.5%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~2.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.269 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.5 mph
88.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.5%
36.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
170 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.5%
norm3.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
170 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.269
believable since Jul 12.269*
lg avg .315 ▼−.046vs his norm —
224 / 160 PA
wOBA.241
.241*
lg avg .315 ▼−.074vs his norm —
224 / 200 PA
Strikeout %19.6%
19.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
224 / 60 PA
Walk %4.0%
4.0%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —
224 / 120 PA
BABIP.277
norm.277*
lg avg .295 ▼−.018vs his norm −.019 ▼BABIP is below his ~.296 norm — expect it to rise.
170 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
224 / 50 PA
Chase %34.1%
34.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
224 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.5%→3.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.5% (signal) tempered to career ~2.9% → projected 3.2%.
BABIP 0.277→0.298 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.277 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.303 (xBA 0.247) → 0.298.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (8 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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