MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Luisangel Acuña
161 PA · week 17
this weekSELL
last weekBUY-LOW

Luisangel Acuña

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.283 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61
ROSAVG .257HR 1R 13RBI 7SB 11

Acuña is a sell — his skill has faded and is below league.

His expected wOBA is .283 — .032 below the league average of .315 — and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be stable. Worse, his xwOBA has been trending down across the sample, so the skill isn't just low; it's eroding. His contact quality is middling at best: exit velocity is barely above league, hard-hit rate is 39.5% against a 40% average, and barrel rate is half the league norm at 4.0%. There is no luck story to mask the decline — his actual wOBA tracks his xwOBA. He's a below-league hitter whose numbers have nowhere to go but where they already are. Sell. 1 HR / 13 R / 7 RBI / 11 SB / .257 AVG marks him as a deep-league-only streaming option, not a keeper.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %4.0%+1.1%vs his ~2.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.283 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.8 mph
89.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.8 mphvs his norm —
124 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.5%
39.5%*
lg avg 40.0% −0.5%vs his norm —
124 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.0%
norm4.0%*
lg avg 8.0% −4.0%vs his norm +1.1%
124 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.283
believable since Jul 12.283*
lg avg .315 −.032vs his norm —
161 / 160 PA
wOBA.251
.251*
lg avg .315 −.064vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league averageexpect it to rise.
161 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.0%
18.0%*
lg avg 22.0% −4.0%vs his norm —
161 / 60 PA
Walk %4.3%
4.3%*
lg avg 8.5% −4.2%vs his norm —
161 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
norm.289*
lg avg .295 −.006vs his norm −.007 BABIP is below his ~.296 normexpect it to rise.
124 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.3%
12.3%*
lg avg 11.0% +1.3%vs his norm —
161 / 50 PA
Chase %34.2%
34.2%*
lg avg 28.5% +5.7%vs his norm —
161 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.0%→3.3%signal1 HR — Barrel% 4.0% (signal) tempered to career ~2.9% → projected 3.3%.
BABIP 0.289→0.315 regressednoise.257 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.319 (xBA 0.260) → 0.315.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~149 projected PA.
slugging + lineup7 RBI — his RBI rate over ~149 projected PA.
run rate / role11 SB — his steal rate (8 in 43 G) over ~149 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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