128 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Ryan Waldschmidt
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 34% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.282); BABIP 0.392 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .238R 19RBI 13SB 9
Waldschmidt is a hold — league-adjacent skill set with a strikeout cap.
ROS projects HR 0 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .284 YTD → .238 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.282)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 34% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.1 mphvs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.282
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 160 PA
wOBA.290
lg avg .315 ▼−.025vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 200 PA
Strikeout %33.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.6%vs his norm —
128 / 60 PA
Walk %7.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
128 / 120 PA
BABIP.392
lg avg .295 ▲+.097vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
74 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
128 / 50 PA
Chase %24.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
128 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→8.1%signal3 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.1%.
BABIP 0.392→0.342 regressednoise.238 AVG — BABIP 0.392 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.337 (xBA 0.230) → 0.342.
on-base + lineup19 R — his run rate over ~153 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~153 projected PA.
run rate / role9 SB — his steal rate (5 in 23 G) over ~153 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.