MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Vaughn Grissom
401 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Vaughn Grissom

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from BUY-LOW on September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.315); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .248HR 0R 3RBI 6SB 0

Grissom is a hold — league average across the board.

His expected wOBA is .315, dead on the league average, and 401 plate appearances is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .309, so there is no luck gap pulling the line in either direction. The contact metrics land in the same place: 87.9 mph average exit velocity against 89.0 league, a 37.8% hard-hit rate against 40.0%, 7.2% barrels against 8.0%. Nothing there is a hidden skill waiting to show up. He strikes out less than league average at 18.5% and walks a little less at 6.5%, and he chases more than average at 31.7%, which roughly cancels out. Limited data here — no career baseline or trend to lean on, so this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. There is no edge in either direction. Hold. With a 0 HR / 3 R / 6 RBI ROS line, he's a drop-tier drag — hold only as deep-league filler.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.2%+1.6%vs his ~5.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.315)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.9 mph
87.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −1.1 mphvs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 40.0% −2.2%vs his norm —
291 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% −0.8%vs his norm +1.6%
291 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.315
believable since Jun 20.315*
lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —
401 / 160 PA
wOBA.309
.309*
lg avg .315 −.006vs his norm —
401 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.5%
18.5%*
lg avg 22.0% −3.5%vs his norm —
401 / 60 PA
Walk %6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.5% −2.0%vs his norm —
401 / 120 PA
BABIP.282
norm.282*
lg avg .295 −.013vs his norm −.005 BABIP is below his ~.287 normexpect it to rise.
291 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% +0.0%vs his norm —
401 / 50 PA
Chase %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 28.5% +3.2%vs his norm —
401 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.2%→6.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.2% (signal) tempered to career ~5.6% → projected 6.6%.
BABIP 0.282→0.267 regressednoise.248 AVG — BABIP 0.282 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.258 (xBA 0.251) → 0.267.
on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 38 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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