MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Vaughn Grissom
211 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY-LOW

Vaughn Grissom

LAA·2B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xwOBA 0.334, +0.019 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.64
ROSAVG .252HR 3R 14RBI 28SB 0

Grissom is a buy — contact quality is trending up.

His expected wOBA is .334, well above league average at .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA sits at .312, nearly matching the expected value, so his production is earned. The driver here is his still-rising hard-hit rate, which has stepped up over the sample and sits at 42.1% against a league average of 40.0%. His barrel rate is below league, but his hard contact is translating into a strong xwOBA. He strikes out just 14.2% of the time, a clear skill above the 22% league average, and his chase rate is below league. His contact quality is getting better as the season goes, and the barreling should follow. Buy.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %6.3%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~5.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.334, +0.019 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.3%
norm6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.334
believable since Jun 20.334*
lg avg .315 ▲+.019vs his norm —
211 / 160 PA
wOBA.312
.312*
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
211 / 200 PA
Strikeout %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm —
211 / 60 PA
Walk %8.1%
8.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
211 / 120 PA
BABIP.266
norm.266*
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm −.021 ▼BABIP is below his ~.287 norm — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
211 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
211 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 6.3%→5.9%signal3 HR — Barrel% 6.3% (signal) tempered to career ~5.6% → projected 5.9%.
BABIP 0.266→0.269 regressednoise.252 AVG — BABIP 0.266 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.261) → 0.269.
on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~171 projected PA.
slugging + lineup28 RBI — his RBI rate over ~171 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 38 G) over ~171 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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