MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Shane Drohan
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Shane Drohan

MIL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.67 sits 0.43 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.317 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.73
ROSK 8ERA 3.67WHIP 1.31W 0–1SV 0–0

Drohan is a buy-low — the ERA is hiding a real arm.

His BABIP-against is .317, 22 points above the league average of .295, and that gap is doing most of the damage the box score shows. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play before it is reliable, and he has 325. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 3.67, well below the league average of 4.10 — and that number has been stepping down across the sample. His .297 expected wOBA allowed sits below league, his hard-hit rate allowed of 37.5% is under the league mark of 40.0%, and his fastball is at 94.9 mph, above league average and ticking up. The skill is real. The bounces are not. Buy low. The dip buys 8 K and a 3.67 ERA at a deep-league discount — a stash, not a streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.8%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~25.4% career norm
  • Walk %8.1%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.67 sits 0.43 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.317 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.5%
37.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
325 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
325 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
believable since Jun 25.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
484 / 200 TBF
xERA3.67
3.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —
484 / 200 TBF
ERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
114.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
norm23.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
484 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.1%
norm8.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
484 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.317
.317*
lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
325 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm —
484 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
484 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
1839 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→24.3%signal8 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~25.4% → projected 24.3% over ~7 remaining IP.
xERA 3.67signal3.67 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.67 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.1% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.67 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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