MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Shane Drohan
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Shane Drohan

MIL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.71
ROSK 0ERA 3.77WHIP 1.32W 0–0SV 0–0

Drohan is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, not the arm.

His xERA is 3.81 — .29 better than league average — and across 528 batters faced that number is past the point where it is reliable. The ERA sitting at 4.19 is being dragged by his BABIP-against: .316 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 354 — that gap is luck, not a skill signal. The underlying picture is a real arm, and it has been getting better: his xERA has stepped down across the sample while his fastball velocity has stepped up, now 94.9 mph against a 94.0 league average. He strikes out 23.7% of batters, above league, and his swinging-strike rate of 13.1% sits well above the 11.0% average. Buy low. The 3.77 ERA and 1.32 WHIP back it, but 0 K makes this a deep-league asset to buy, not stream.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.7%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~25.4% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~7.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.81 sits 0.29 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.7%
38.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
354 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
354 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
believable since Jun 25.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
528 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —
528 / 200 TBF
ERA4.19
4.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
124.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.7%
norm23.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
528 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
528 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
354 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
13.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
528 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
528 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
94.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
2001 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.7%→24.2%signal0 K — K% 23.7% (signal) lifted to career ~25.4% → projected 24.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.81signal3.77 ERA — xERA 3.81 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 31 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.304 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0-0 SV — role: middle, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.77 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups