260 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Xavier Edwards
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Edwards is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating his line.
His actual wOBA is .386, well above the league average of .315, but the stat driving it up is not reliable. His BABIP sits at .340 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to trust — he has 198. That gap is luck, not skill. His expected wOBA is .352, still good but .034 below the surface, and that gap is the regression coming. His contact quality is actually below league: 87.5 mph average exit velocity, 33.3% hard-hit rate, and 6.6% barrel rate all lag the league. His xwOBA has been stepping up across the sample, but the surface has overshot even that improvement. The line is real on the scoreboard; the skill is a rung lower. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.73
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.340 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.352 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 50 BBE
Barrel %6.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL198 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL260 / 160 PA
wOBA.386
lg avg .315 ▲+.071trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL260 / 200 PA
Strikeout %11.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−10.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL260 / 60 PA
Walk %12.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL260 / 120 PA
BABIP.340
lg avg .295 ▲+.045too early to trust
NOISE198 / 800 BIP