MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Xavier Edwards
595 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Xavier Edwards

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.311) — BABIP 0.320 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Edwards is a hold — league-average skill, contact that won't scare anyone

His expected wOBA is .311, four points under the league average of .315, and he has 595 plate appearances behind it, so the number is settled. What that skill looks like is unusual: an 86.8 mph average exit velocity and a 28.4% hard-hit rate, both well below league, with a 3.2% barrel rate to match. The bat does not scare anyone. His actual wOBA of .325 sits a bit above the expected figure, and that gap traces to a .320 BABIP against a .295 league average — 444 balls in play against the 800 BABIP needs to be reliable. Some of that average will come back. The expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample. The one thing that has held is his command of the zone: a 13.9% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate. Average skill, average line, nothing pulling either way. Hold. With a 0 HR / 0 SB ROS line, this is a drop-tier hold — a deep-league streamer at best, not a counting-stat asset.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.2%—+2.1% ▲vs his ~1.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.311)
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.320 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
86.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.2 mphvs his norm —
444 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %28.4%
28.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.6%vs his norm —
444 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.2%
norm3.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm +2.1% ▲
444 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
595 / 160 PA
wOBA.325
.325*
lg avg .315 ▲+.010vs his norm —
595 / 200 PA
Strikeout %13.9%
13.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —
595 / 60 PA
Walk %11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
595 / 120 PA
BABIP.320
norm.320*
lg avg .295 ▲+.025vs his norm −.032 ▼BABIP is below his ~.352 norm — expect it to rise.
444 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
595 / 50 PA
Chase %24.4%
24.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
595 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.2%→2.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 3.2% (signal) tempered to career ~1.1% → projected 2.6%.
BABIP 0.320→0.298 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.320 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.270 (xBA 0.258) → 0.298.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (9 in 61 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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