Logan Gilbert
Gilbert is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and earned
His expected ERA is 3.63, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 750 batters — past the 200 where that number becomes reliable. Nothing is propping it up: his BABIP-against is not carrying the line, the skill is doing the work. The fastball is sitting at 96.4 mph against a 94.0 league average and has been ticking up across the sample, and the swing-and-miss backs it — a 15.4% swinging-strike rate against 11.0% league, with a 27.3% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate. That combination is a pitcher missing bats and filling the zone. His expected ERA has been stepping down as the sample grows, which is the wrong direction for anyone betting against him. The production is earned. Buy. A 0 K / 3.63 ERA / 1.14 WHIP line is a deep-league asset — buy low before the strikeouts catch up.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.3%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
- Walk %6.5%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.63, 0.47 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.