week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Logan Gilbert
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.79 is 0.47 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.84 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 59ERA 3.79WHIP 1.10W 2–4SV 0
Gilbert is a sell-high — his ERA masks underlying regression.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.5%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm
- Walk %5.3%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~5.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.261 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.79 is 0.47 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
301 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
301 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
449 / 200 TBF
xERA3.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.31vs his norm —
449 / 200 TBF
ERA3.32
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
114 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
449 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
449 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
301 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
449 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
449 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
1783 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→26.4%signal59 K — K% 26.5% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 26.4% over ~59 remaining…
xERA 3.79signal3.79 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.79 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.10 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.10 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep59 K ROS, 3.79 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.