MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Logan Gilbert
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Logan Gilbert

SEA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.71
ROSK 13ERA 3.73WHIP 1.13W 0–1SV 0

Gilbert is a buy — his expected ERA is below league and earned.

His xERA is 3.73 — 0.37 below the league average of 4.10 — and he has faced enough batters for it to be reliable. His actual contact quality allowed supports it: he has given up a .299 expected wOBA against the .315 league mark, and hard contact has been fine over 438 balls in play. He strikes out 26.6% of batters, well above league, and walks 6.4%, below it. That 20-point strikeout-to-walk gap is a real margin, not a small one. His fastball velocity is stable and above league at 96.3 mph, and it has stepped up across the sample. The expected-ERA trend has moved the right direction too. There is no luck story to explain any of this away. Buy. 13 K and a 3.73 ERA ROS make him a deep-league asset worth adding now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.4%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~5.4% career norm
  • Strikeout %26.6%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~26.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.73, 0.37 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
41.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
438 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
438 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
.299*
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
661 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
3.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —
661 / 200 TBF
ERA3.71
3.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.6%
norm26.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.6%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
661 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.4%
norm6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
661 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
.265*
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
438 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
14.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
661 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
661 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
96.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
2645 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.6%→26.5%signal13 K — K% 26.6% (signal) tempered to career ~26.1% → projected 26.5% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.73signal3.73 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.73 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.4% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep13 K ROS, 3.73 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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