week 10
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
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Roki Sasaki
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Sasaki is a sell — his xERA keeps climbing and it's real.
His expected ERA has been climbing across the sample and now sits at 4.59, nearly half a run above league average. He has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. The problem is contact quality: opponents barrel the ball at 11.4% and hit it hard 44.3% of the time — both well above league, on stable samples. His xwOBA allowed is .336, .021 above league. His strikeout rate is only slightly above league at 22.5%, and his walk rate is 8.6%, a touch high. There is no luck story to lean on; his ERA tracks closely with his xERA. The skill is below league and the surface is not hiding it. Sell.
Sell
med0.70
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.59 +0.49 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL149 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL149 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.336
lg avg .315 ▲+.021trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL222 / 200 TBF
xERA4.59
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.49trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL222 / 200 TBF
ERA4.59
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.49too early to trust
NOISE51 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL222 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL222 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.290
lg avg .295 ▼−.005too early to trust
NOISE149 / 800 BIP