MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Roki Sasaki
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekSELL

Roki Sasaki

LAD·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell stable xERA 4.64 +0.54 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.71
ROSK 51ERA 4.45WHIP 1.34W 2–4SV 0

Sasaki is a sell — his xERA is climbing and the stuff isn't covering it.

His expected ERA is 4.64, half a run above the league average of 4.10, and the sample is reliable at 352 batters faced. There is no luck story: his BABIP-against is near league average, so the ERA is not being dragged down by bad bounces. The damage comes from contact quality — opponents barrel 12.8% of balls, well above the 8% league rate, and hard-hit 44.9% against 40%. Those are stable signals at 234 batted balls. He does miss bats (22.7% K, 14.2% whiffs), and the fastball is elite at 97.6 mph, but the contact allowed makes him hittable. Worse, his xERA has been stepping upward across the sample — the skill is not sitting still; it is deteriorating. There is no mirage to sell into and no slump to buy. Sell. 51 K and a 4.45 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP make him a stream-only arm; hard contact kills his ceiling.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.7%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~20.4% career norm
  • Walk %9.4%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~10.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.64 +0.54 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.9%
44.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
234 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
234 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
.332*
lg avg .315 ▲+.017vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
xERA4.64
4.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.54vs his norm —
352 / 200 TBF
ERA5.33
5.33*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.23vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.7%
norm22.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
352 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
norm9.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
352 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
234 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.2%
14.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
32.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
352 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
97.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
1422 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.7%→21.9%signal51 K — K% 22.7% (signal) tempered to career ~20.4% → projected 21.9% over ~54 remaining…
xERA 4.64signal4.45 ERA — xERA 4.64 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 51 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop51 K ROS, 4.45 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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