week 25
this weekSELL
last weekSELL
Roki Sasaki
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell stable xERA 4.41 +0.31 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 12ERA 4.30WHIP 1.34W 0–1SV 0
Sasaki is a sell — the stuff plays, the run prevention doesn't.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.9%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~20.4% career norm
- Walk %9.4%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~10.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.41 +0.31 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm —
341 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
341 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —
511 / 200 TBF
xERA4.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —
511 / 200 TBF
ERA4.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
119.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
511 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
511 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.280
lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
341 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
511 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
511 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.8 mphvs his norm —
2052 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→22.2%signal12 K — K% 22.9% (signal) tempered to career ~20.4% → projected 22.2% over ~12 remaining…
xERA 4.41signal4.30 ERA — xERA 4.41 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 51 IP.
BB% 9.4% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.30 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.