MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Roki Sasaki
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Roki Sasaki

LAD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL on October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.30); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.23WHIP 1.33W 0–0SV 0

Sasaki is a hold — his expected ERA sits right at league

His expected ERA is 4.30 against a league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters — 522 — for that number to be reliable. The strikeout rate is 23.6%, a tick above league, but the walks are 9.2% against a league mark of 8.0%, so the whiffs and the free passes mostly cancel out. The expected wOBA allowed tells the same story: .318, essentially league average. The one thing worth watching is the direction — his expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample, which is why the contact numbers matter more than the strikeout total. He misses bats better than most (14.9% swinging strikes, 33.3% chase) and throws 97.9, but none of that has produced run prevention better than the middle of the league. Hold. 0 K / 4.23 ERA / 1.33 WHIP is a drop-tier tax — hold the arm, but expect streaming-only value until the run prevention moves.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.6%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~20.4% career norm
  • Walk %9.2%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~10.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
346 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
346 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
.318*
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
522 / 200 TBF
xERA4.30
4.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.20vs his norm —
522 / 200 TBF
ERA4.49
4.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.39vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
122.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
norm23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +3.2% ▲
522 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
norm9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
522 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.282
.282*
lg avg .295 ▼−.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
346 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
14.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
522 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
522 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.9 mph
97.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.9 mphvs his norm —
2100 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→22.7%signal0 K — K% 23.6% (signal) tempered to career ~20.4% → projected 22.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.30signal4.23 ERA — xERA 4.30 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 51 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.23 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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