MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Edgardo Henriquez
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Edgardo Henriquez

LAD·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.47, 1.63 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.47WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0

Henriquez is a buy — he is missing bats and suppressing hard contact

His expected ERA is 2.47, 1.63 runs below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. The reason is that hitters don't square him up: 27.1% hard-hit against the league's 40.0%, 2.9% barrels against 8.0%, and .244 expected wOBA allowed against .315. His strikeout rate of 29.3% helps everything else. The warning is his walk rate at 10.3%, above league, and that keeps his pitch counts high. What makes him stand out from other arms with good batting-average-on-contact numbers is the tracker: his expected ERA has stepped down as the sample has grown, and his fastball has climbed to 100.7 mph. That is a profile that is getting better, not one that has gotten lucky. Buy. 0 SV caps his ceiling, but 2.47 ERA and 1.27 WHIP make him a deep-league asset worth stashing now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.3%—+5.6% ▲vs his ~23.7% career norm
  • Walk %10.3%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.47, 1.63 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.1%
believable since May 2927.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.9%vs his norm —
140 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.9%
2.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
140 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.244
.244*
lg avg .315 ▼−.071vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
xERA2.47
2.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.63vs his norm —
242 / 200 TBF
ERA2.85
2.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
60 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.3%
norm29.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm +5.6% ▲
242 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.3%
norm10.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
242 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.263
.263*
lg avg .295 ▼−.032vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
14.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
242 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.7 mph
100.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.7 mphvs his norm —
968 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.3%→26.8%signal0 K — K% 29.3% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 26.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.47signal2.47 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.47 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.3% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep2.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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