MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Edgardo Henriquez
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Edgardo Henriquez

LAD·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.35, 1.75 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 4ERA 2.35WHIP 1.26W 0–1SV 0

Henriquez is a buy — his earned run prevention is genuine.

His expected ERA is 2.35 — 1.75 runs below the league average of 4.1 — and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That gap is not BABIP noise; it is contact suppression. He allows hard contact on just 25.8% of batted balls, well under the 40.0% league average, and barrels on 3.0% against 8.0% league, both on samples past the point where those numbers stabilize. He strikes out 29.9% of batters and gets swings on 14.9% of pitches, both above league. The one caveat is his 10.4% walk rate, but it does not undo the profile. His expected ERA has stepped down across the sample while his fastball has stepped up to 100.7 mph. Buy. A 2.35 ERA and 4 K the rest of the way make him a deep-league asset, not a streamer — add now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.9%—+6.2% ▲vs his ~23.7% career norm
  • Walk %10.4%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.35, 1.75 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed25.8%
believable since May 2925.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−14.2%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.0%
3.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.239
.239*
lg avg .315 ▼−.076vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
xERA2.35
2.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.75vs his norm —
231 / 200 TBF
ERA2.62
2.62*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.48vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
58.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.9%
norm29.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm +6.2% ▲
231 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
norm10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
231 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.240
.240*
lg avg .295 ▼−.055vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
14.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.2%
34.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
231 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.7 mph
100.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.7 mphvs his norm —
925 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.9%→27.0%signal4 K — K% 29.9% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 27.0% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.35signal2.35 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.35 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.27 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep2.35 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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