week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Austin Warren
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.23); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 23ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Warren is a hold — league average with nothing to push either way.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.6%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~21.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.23)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
99 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
99 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.350
lg avg .315 ▲+.035vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 TBF
xERA5.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
157 / 200 TBF
ERA4.63
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.53vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
157 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm +2.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.8% norm — expect it to fall.
157 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
99 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
157 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
652 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→22.5%signal23 K — K% 23.6% (signal) tempered to career ~21.6% → projected 22.5% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 5.23noise3.70 ERA — xERA 5.23 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 11.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.