week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
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Austin Warren
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Warren is a sell-high — ERA has luck built in.
Limited data: this call rests on 20 innings, but the gap between his ERA and his expected ERA is already big enough to act on. His ERA is 1.33, but his expected ERA is 3.81 — a 2.48-run gap. The mechanism is his BABIP-against: .260, well below the .295 league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 51. That luck is flattering his line. He's striking out 26.5% of batters, above the 22% league average, but his hard-hit rate allowed is 41.2% — slightly above the 40% league average — so batters are making loud contact. The surface looks elite; the underlying numbers do not support it. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.95
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.260 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.81 is 2.48 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL51 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%too early to trust
NOISE51 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006too early to trust
NOISE83 / 200 TBF
xERA3.81
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29too early to trust
NOISE83 / 200 TBF
ERA1.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.77too early to trust
NOISE20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL83 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%too early to trust
NOISE83 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035too early to trust
NOISE51 / 800 BIP