week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Austin Warren
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (4.72); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 5WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0
Warren is a hold — league average, nothing unstable beneath it.
ROS projects K 22 YTD → 5 ROS, WHIP 1.13 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.5%—+4.9% ▲vs his ~21.6% career norm
- Walk %11.1%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.72)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.0%
lg avg 40.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
189 / 200 TBF
xERA4.72
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.62vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
189 / 200 TBF
ERA4.68
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.58vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
42.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +4.9% ▲
189 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.1%vs his norm +2.3% ▲
189 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.330
lg avg .295 ▲+.035vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
189 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
805 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.5%→24.0%signal5 K — K% 26.5% (signal) tempered to career ~21.6% → projected 24.0% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.72noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.72 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 11.1% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.