Austin Warren
Warren is a sell — his expected ERA is above league and climbing.
His expected ERA is 4.66, .56 above the league average of 4.10, and 216 batters faced is enough for that number to mean something. It has stepped up across the sample, which makes the read worse rather than better. His walk rate tells the same story from the other direction: 11.1% against a league average of 8.0%. He does miss bats — a 25.5% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging strikes, both solid — and his hard-hit rate allowed of 39.6% is right at league. But barrels sit at 11.2% against 8.0%, so the contact he allows is getting hit hard enough to cash in. There is no suppressed BABIP or soft contact number to blame here; the skill is the level. Sell. 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.36 WHIP — a waiver-streamer's line, not a hold; fade the production and move on.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.5%—+3.9% ▲vs his ~21.6% career norm
- Walk %11.1%—+2.3% ▲vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.66 +0.56 vs league with no luck excuse
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.