MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jakob Marsee
389 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL

Jakob Marsee

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL on July 18, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.303); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 3AVG .205R 26RBI 13SB 11

Marsee is a hold — league-average skill with no edge.

His expected wOBA is .303, just .012 below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be trustworthy. His actual wOBA tracks at .287, close enough that there is no luck story pulling the line. His contact quality lags: average exit velocity is 86.8 mph, hard-hit rate 33.5%, barrel rate 3.3% — all below league averages, and stable at over 200 batted balls. He walks well (12.9%, well above the 8.5% league mark) and chases less than average, but the batted-ball production is simply not there. The skill is what it is — solid plate discipline with below-average impact. There's no signal to buy or sell. Hold. 3 HR / 26 R / 13 RBI / 11 SB / .205 AVG — a deep-league streaming-only speed flier with no power.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %3.3%−4.7%vs his ~8.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.303)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo86.8 mph
86.8 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph −2.2 mphvs his norm —
245 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 40.0% −6.5%vs his norm —
245 / 50 BBE
Barrel %3.3%
norm3.3%*
lg avg 8.0% −4.7%vs his norm −4.7%
245 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.303
.303*
lg avg .315 −.012vs his norm —
389 / 160 PA
wOBA.287
.287*
lg avg .315 −.028vs his norm —
389 / 200 PA
Strikeout %21.9%
21.9%*
lg avg 22.0% −0.1%vs his norm —
389 / 60 PA
Walk %12.9%
12.9%*
lg avg 8.5% +4.4%vs his norm —
389 / 120 PA
BABIP.250
norm.250*
lg avg .295 −.045vs his norm −.107 BABIP is below his ~.357 normexpect it to rise.
245 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.6%
7.6%*
lg avg 11.0% −3.4%vs his norm —
389 / 50 PA
Chase %23.2%
23.2%*
lg avg 28.5% −5.3%vs his norm —
389 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 3.3%→5.4%signal3 HR — Barrel% 3.3% (signal) lifted to career ~8.0% → projected 5.4%.
BABIP 0.250→0.266 regressednoise.205 AVG — BABIP 0.250 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.274 (xBA 0.220) → 0.266.
on-base + lineup26 R — his run rate over ~197 projected PA.
slugging + lineup13 RBI — his RBI rate over ~197 projected PA.
run rate / role11 SB — his steal rate (14 in 59 G) over ~197 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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