229 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Ben Rice
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Rice is a sell-high — BABIP is inflating his line.
His actual wOBA is .445, but his expected wOBA is .409 — a gap driven entirely by his BABIP of .333, well above league average. BABIP requires around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 146. That gap is luck, not skill. His contact quality is elite: 92.5 mph exit velocity, 52.1% hard-hit rate, and 17.8% barrel rate, all well above league averages and stable. His xwOBA has also been stepping up across the sample, confirming the skill is real — but the surface line is living on borrowed BABIP luck. The sell-high window is now, before the regression hits his wOBA. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.74
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL146 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %52.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+12.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL146 / 50 BBE
Barrel %17.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+9.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL146 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.409
lg avg .315 ▲+.094trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 160 PA
wOBA.445
lg avg .315 ▲+.130trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 200 PA
Strikeout %22.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 60 PA
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL229 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038too early to trust
NOISE146 / 800 BIP