Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryChristian
20HR ←8
70R ←53
70RBI ←45
3SB →8
.270AVG ←.210
Current Season
BenCategoryChristian
17HR ←4
44R ←21
44RBI ←18
2SB →3
.306AVG ←.275
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).