Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryBryce
20HR ←18
71R ←54
71RBI ←54
3SB →6
.269AVG.269
Current Season
BenCategoryBryce
17HR ←13
44R ←34
44RBI ←34
2SB →4
.306AVG ←.261
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.409 is 0.036 below the surface — regression coming
Bryce Harper
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.272 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 71 R. Bryce Harper: 18 HR / 54 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).