Rest of Season Projection
BenCategoryFreddie
20HR ←15
70R ←44
70RBI ←46
3SB3
.270AVG →.276
Current Season
BenCategoryFreddie
17HR ←8
44R ←29
44RBI ←30
2SB2
.306AVG ←.266
What Each Player's System Trusts
Ben Rice
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.408 is 0.034 below the surface — regression coming
Freddie Freeman
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.376, +0.061 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Ben Rice: 20 HR / 70 R. Freddie Freeman: 15 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).